Key points for fomc october 2026
- The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 3.75–4.00% on 28 October. Markets price the chance of a hold at around 90%.
- A December hike is still heavily priced, at about 82% on CME FedWatch.
- With no forward guidance from Chair Kevin Warsh, the statement and press conference will decide the dollar’s next move.
- For Indian traders, the decision lands at 23:30 IST, so USD/INR reacts at Thursday’s open.
What’s expected
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Current federal funds rate | 3.75–4.00% (set by September’s 25 bp hike) |
| Hold odds (October) | About 89% on CME FedWatch; 93% on Kalshi |
| Hike odds (October) | About 11% on CME FedWatch; 6% on Kalshi |
| December hike odds | About 82% on CME FedWatch |
| New projections (dot plot)? | No. The next projections come in December. |
| Decision / press conference (IST) | Wed, 28 Oct, 23:30 / Thu, 29 Oct, 00:00 |
Odds have swung this month. The chance of an October hike was much higher in mid-October, then fell after Warsh declined to preview the decision at the IMF meetings in Bangkok. BNY strategists also don’t expect an October hike and are focusing on December for further tightening.
Why it matters
Inflation is still too high. US CPI is running at 3.7%, and Brent crude is near $117. Minutes of the September meeting showed most officials judged that another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end, and described a higher rate path as insurance against persistent inflation.
Guidance has changed under Warsh. Warsh has said he does not believe in signalling what he might do at future meetings, and called October and December the key decision points. That means the statement wording, any dissents and his press conference tone carry more weight than usual.
The dollar has firmed into the meeting. After two weekly losses, the dollar index rose about 0.6% in three days to two-week highs above 102.00, as markets prepared for a “hawkish hold”. The 10-year Treasury yield has been running above 5%.
Three scenarios for forex traders
| Scenario | What it looks like | Likely market reaction |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Hawkish hold (base case) | Rates unchanged. The statement keeps December open, there may be hawkish dissents, and Warsh stresses inflation risks. | The dollar may hold or extend its recent gains. EUR/USD and gold are likely to stay under pressure, and USD/JPY could rise. |
| 2. Dovish hold | Rates unchanged, but softer language on inflation or more weight on growth risks and the weak jobs data. | December hike odds would likely fall, and the dollar could resume its slide. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and gold may rise, and USD/JPY may fall. |
| 3. Surprise 25 bp hike (about 10%) | Rates rise to 4.00–4.25%, bringing December’s expected move forward. | A sharp dollar rally and a jump in short-term yields are likely, with gold and risk assets falling. The yen’s reaction would depend on the BoJ two days later. |
What to watch beyond the decision:
- Dissents: The September vote was unanimous. Any new hawkish dissents would signal pressure for an earlier hike. Statement language: Watch for changes in how the Fed describes inflation and the labour market.
- Press conference: Watch how Warsh frames December, oil prices and the AI-driven investment boom.
Impact on Indian traders
USD/INR: The decision comes after Indian currency markets close, so USD/INR will react when trading opens at 09:00 IST on Thursday, 29 October. A hawkish hold or a surprise hike could add to pressure on the rupee, alongside high crude prices and FPI outflows. A dovish hold may give the rupee some relief. The RBI has said it will keep moves orderly.
EUR/INR, GBP/INR, JPY/INR: These crosses will reflect how the euro, pound and yen move against the dollar after the Fed. The ECB decides on 29 October and the BoJ on 30 October, so the INR crosses may see two rounds of moves this week.
MCX gold: Gold has fallen below $4,000 on Fed hike fears. A dovish surprise could support it, while a hawkish outcome may add pressure.
Cross pairs on NSE: NSE lists USD/INR, EUR/INR, GBP/INR and JPY/INR, plus EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. Trading forex with unauthorised offshore platforms is not permitted under FEMA.
Fed decisions often shift global risk appetite within minutes. Our Risk-On / Risk-Off Meter can help you gauge the mood before and after the announcement.
What to watch next
| Date (IST) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, 28 Oct, 19:15 | Bank of Canada decision | A close call; may set the tone for USD/CAD before the Fed |
| Wed, 28 Oct, 23:30 | FOMC decision | The main event |
| Thu, 29 Oct, 00:00 | Warsh press conference | Guidance on December |
| Thu, 29 Oct, 18:00 | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE | A quick test of the Fed’s message |
| Thu, 29 Oct, ~18:45 | ECB decision | EUR/USD and EUR/INR |
| Fri, 30 Oct | BoJ decision | USD/JPY and JPY/INR |
| Tue, 3 Nov | US midterm elections | Fiscal outlook and dollar volatility |
| Tue–Wed, 8–9 Dec | Next FOMC meeting, with new projections | Where a hike is mostly priced |
Track all release times on our Economic Calendar, and find more coverage in Market Analysis & News. Related: Central Bank Super Week preview, US midterms and the dollar
FAQs
When is the FOMC October 2026 decision in IST?
At 23:30 IST on Wednesday, 28 October (2:00 pm EDT). Chair Warsh’s press conference follows at 00:00 IST on Thursday, 29 October.
Will the Fed raise rates in October 2026?
A hold at 3.75–4.00% is widely expected, with markets pricing about a 90% chance. A December hike is seen as much more likely.
How could the FOMC decision affect USD/INR?
A hawkish message could strengthen the dollar and weigh on the rupee when Indian markets open on 29 October. A softer message may ease the pressure.