Key points Forex Weekly Wrap (19–23 October 2026)
- The US dollar index posted its second straight weekly loss, briefly touching three-week lows near 101.50 as US Treasury yields fell.
- Sterling was the week’s standout after hot UK inflation and strong PMIs. EUR/GBP hit a 17-month low near 0.8360.
- Gold fell below $4,000 as Brent crude hit a four-year high, reviving inflation and Fed hike fears.
- Next week is packed with central banks: Fed, BoC and RBNZ (28 Oct), ECB (29 Oct) and BoJ (30 Oct).
What happened this week
| Day (IST) | Event | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, 19 Oct, 07:30 | China Q3 GDP | 4.5% y/y, above the 4.4% forecast; lifted AUD |
| Tue, 20 Oct | UK jobs data; Indian markets shut | Strong UK jobs data lifted sterling |
| Wed, 21 Oct, 11:30 | UK September CPI | 3.5% y/y, above the 3.4% forecast; services 3.7% |
| Wed, 21 Oct | RBI MPC minutes | 6–0 vote for the hike to 5.50%; 4–2 split on stance |
| Wed–Fri, 21–23 Oct | Jio Platforms IPO | ₹30,213 crore issue; foreign inflows supported the rupee |
| Fri, 23 Oct, 05:00 | Japan September CPI | Nine-month peak, supporting BoJ hike bets |
| Fri, 23 Oct | Global flash PMIs | UK beat (53.1); Eurozone missed (51.9); US strong (57.6) |
Weekly scorecard
| Market | Friday close (23 Oct) | Week | What moved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | (low near 101.50) | Down | Lower US yields; second weekly loss |
| EUR/USD | 1.1203 | Slightly down | French bond stress and a weak eurozone PMI offset the softer dollar |
| GBP/USD | (traded above 1.3400) | Up | Hot UK CPI and strong PMIs firmed BoE hike bets |
| USD/JPY | (~157.00) | Down | Five-week low near 156.00; BoJ hike bets |
| AUD/USD | (above 0.7000) | Up | China GDP beat; four-week highs |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | (~$4,000) | Down | Oil-driven inflation fears and Fed hike bets |
| Brent crude | (hit ~$114) | Up | Four-year high on Middle East supply risks |
| USD/INR | (94.82 on Thu) | Rupee firmer | Jio IPO inflows and RBI measures, despite FPI selling |
Why it mattered
US dollar: The dollar struggled despite a risk-off mood. Falling Treasury yields, renewed geopolitical worries and a sell-off in AI-related stocks all played a part. Rising oil prices also failed to lift it. Markets still see a Fed hike in December as likely, but next week’s hike odds are low.
Pound: Sterling had its best week in a while. UK CPI rose to 3.5% in September with services inflation at 3.7%. On Friday, the UK composite PMI jumped to an eight-month high of 53.1, against 51.8 expected. Together, these left a BoE hike on 5 November close to fully priced. GBP/USD rose for a second week.
Euro: EUR/USD could not hold on to the previous week’s gains and ended slightly lower. Two factors weighed: France’s 10-year bond yield climbed above 5%, and the eurozone flash PMI fell to 51.9, a miss, with France back in contraction.
Yen: USD/JPY extended the previous week’s losses and touched fresh five-week lows near 156.00. Japan’s CPI rose to a nine-month peak, supporting expectations of a BoJ hike in December.
Australian dollar: China’s Q3 GDP beat helped AUD/USD rebound strongly to four-week highs above 0.7000.
Gold: Gold fell below $4,000 as the dollar steadied late in the week, yields rebounded and crude kept climbing. It was on track for a fourth straight daily loss by Wednesday, and is now more than 28% below its January record.
Impact on Indian traders
USD/INR: The rupee had a volatile week. It closed around 94.4–94.5 on Wednesday, its strongest finish since 4 September, helped by Jio IPO dollar inflows and the RBI’s October measures. On Thursday, it slipped 44 paise to 94.82 as crude rose.
FPI flows: Foreign investors kept selling Indian shares, with about ₹52,000 crore of outflows in October through the 19th. Those outflows remain a headwind once the IPO-related support fades.
GBP/INR and EUR/INR: Sterling’s strength and the euro’s weakness should show up in the INR crosses, with GBP/INR firmer and EUR/INR softer, depending on USD/INR. JPY/INR may have gained as the yen firmed.
MCX gold: Gold falling below $4,000 would normally weigh on MCX gold. A firmer rupee adds to that pressure, because it lowers the rupee price of imported gold.
Cross pairs on NSE: NSE lists USD/INR, EUR/INR, GBP/INR and JPY/INR, plus EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. Trading forex with unauthorised offshore platforms is not permitted under FEMA.
With oil at four-year highs, AI stock jitters and five central bank decisions ahead, risk sentiment could swing quickly. Our Risk-On / Risk-Off Meter can help you gauge the mood before you trade.
What to watch next week (26–30 October)
| Date (IST) | Event | Expectation / why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, 27 Oct | US consumer confidence; ECB bank lending survey | Positioning before the Fed |
| Wed, 28 Oct, ~06:00 | Australia Q3 CPI | Key input for the RBA on 3 November |
| Wed, 28 Oct | RBNZ and Bank of Canada decisions | 25 bp hikes expected from both |
| Wed, 28 Oct | UK Autumn Budget | Fiscal risks for sterling and gilts |
| Wed, 28 Oct | Jio Platforms listing | Equity flows and the rupee |
| Wed, 28 Oct, ~23:30 | FOMC decision | Hold expected at 3.75–4.00%; watch the guidance on December |
| Thu, 29 Oct, ~18:00 | US Q3 GDP and September PCE | Inflation check for the Fed |
| Thu, 29 Oct, ~18:45 | ECB decision | Hold expected; French bond yields in focus |
| Fri, 30 Oct, morning | BoJ decision; Tokyo CPI | Hold at 1.25% expected; December guidance is key |
| Fri, 30 Oct | Eurozone Q3 GDP; Germany CPI | Growth and inflation check for the euro |
US clocks change on 1 November, so US release times shift by one hour in IST from the following week.
Possible scenarios:
- If the Fed holds but signals a December hike clearly, the dollar may recover some of its two-week losses, putting pressure on gold and EUR/USD.
- If the Fed sounds less hawkish than expected, the dollar’s slide could extend, and EUR/USD and GBP/USD would likely benefit.
- If oil stays near $114, inflation fears are likely to keep gold under pressure and weigh on the rupee.
Track all release times on our Economic Calendar, and find more coverage in Market Analysis & News. Related this week: [LINK China GDP post], [LINK UK CPI posts], [LINK RBI MPC minutes post], [LINK flash PMI post], [LINK FII flows post], [LINK USD/JPY BoJ post], [LINK gold outlook post].
FAQs
What moved forex markets in the week of 19–23 October 2026?
Falling US yields weighed on the dollar, hot UK data lifted sterling, French bond stress hurt the euro, and oil’s surge to a four-year high pushed gold below $4,000.
Which currency performed best this week?
The British pound. Hot UK inflation and an eight-month high in the UK PMI pushed EUR/GBP to a 17-month low near 0.8360.
What are the key events for forex traders next week?
Five central bank decisions: the Fed, BoC and RBNZ on 28 October, the ECB on 29 October and the BoJ on 30 October. Also US GDP and PCE, Australia CPI and the UK Budget.